The International Monetary Fund (IMF) offers most recent forecast update for the global economy in its July report on World Economic Outlook Update – Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty. Over the next two years it expects:
- Global GDP growth forecast: World GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.0% in 2025 before recovering to 3.1% in 2026. The 2025 forecast is slightly improved from the 2.8% estimate in April, reflecting early tariff-related adjustments, improved financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in key economies.
- OECD economies: Growth in advanced economies is projected to be 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. US growth is projected at 1.9% in 2025, slightly above earlier forecasts, supported by lower tariffs and looser financial conditions. Euro area growth is forecast to rise to 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, reflecting a 0.2 point upward revision for 2025.
- Global headline inflation is expected to ease to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, consistent with previous forecasts. However, this headline projections masks differences across countries. Inflation is projected to remain above target in the United States, while other major economies are likely to experience more moderate levels. Key risks include potential tariff changes, persistent global uncertainty, and rising geopolitical tensions.
- Australia’s economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, marking an upward revision from the April forecast of 1.6% for 2025 despite ongoing uncertain geopolitical conditions and trade policies.
IMF Economic Outlook, selected countries (July 2025)
| |
|
2024 actual |
2025 forecast |
2026 forecast |
| Real GDP growth, % |
World |
3.3 |
3 |
3.1 |
| |
Advanced economies |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
| |
Emerging Market and Developing Economies |
4.3 |
4.1 |
4 |
| |
Australia |
1 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
| |
United States |
2.8 |
1.9 |
2 |
| |
Euro Area |
0.9 |
1 |
1.2 |
| |
China |
5 |
4.8 |
4.2 |
| Commodity prices, % |
Oil |
-1.8 |
-13.9 |
-5.7 |
| |
Nonfuel |
3.7 |
7.9 |
2 |
| Consumer Prices, % |
World |
5.6 |
4.2 |
3.6 |
| |
Advanced Economies |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
| |
Emerging Market and Developing Economies |
7.7 |
5.4 |
4.5 |
